Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben CaspariusPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rockies- Nolan JonesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jones singled to center, Rodgers scored.11–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 311–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 211–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 111–4
- 8Kiermaier singled to right, Ohtani scored on error, Kiermaier safe at second on fielding error by catcher Stallings.11–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 211–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 111–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 6Jones singled to right, Rodgers scored.10–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 6Edman hit sacrifice fly to left, Kiermaier scored.10–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–2
- 6Ohtani homered to right (436 feet), Taylor scored and Barnes scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 39–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 29–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 19–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–2
- 5Tovar reached on infield single to shortstop, Cave scored on throwing error by shortstop Edman, Blackmon safe at third on error.6–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Pages homered to left (433 feet).6–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 2Taylor stole home, Ohtani stole second, Ohtani safe at third on throwing error by catcher Stallings.5–1
- 2Taylor stole home, Ohtani stole second, Ohtani safe at third on throwing error by catcher Stallings.5–1
- 2Ohtani singled to right, Pages scored, Taylor to third.4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -180 / COL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 68.5%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- COL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −15 | LAD: Ryan Brasier: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.77 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +135 Elo | LAD 68.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.730th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3042–35 | Road vs home | 37–3922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–79 | 77–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 70–66 | 3–9 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 74–68 |
| Overs–unders | 88–69–1 | 80–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 17–6 COL in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 23.