San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Muncy homered to center (422 feet).10–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 210–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 110–2
- 9Tatis Jr. homered to center (401 feet), Arraez scored.10–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–1
- 9Higashioka homered to center (387 feet).8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–1
- 8Bogaerts homered to left center (387 feet).7–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 37–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 8Merrill homered to left center (383 feet), Machado scored.6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Merrill singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Profar to second.4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Lux hit sacrifice fly to left, T. Hernández scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2D. Peralta homered to center (414 feet), Merrill scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left (387 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML SD +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- SD +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +38 Elo | LAD 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–33 | Road vs home | 52–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–79 | 82–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–58 | 73–67 |
| Underdog | 44–21 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 86–77–1 | 91–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–15 LAD in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 27.