Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting2-4
- Aaron BummerPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Higashioka homered to left center (387 feet).0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Higashioka hit sacrifice fly to center, Cronenworth scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left center (415 feet), Arraez scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML ATL +165 / SD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- SD: Elo 53.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -177
- ATL +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +6 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +27 Elo | SD 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 45–359th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–84 | 84–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 56–72 | 39–57 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 59–99–3 | 84–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–8 SD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 14.