New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor homered to center (413 feet), Marte scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–7
- 8Albies doubled to left, Harris II scored, d'Arnaud scored and Merrifield scored.6–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 36–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 8Kelenic reached on infield single to first, White scored, d'Arnaud to third.6–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 8Nimmo homered to right (405 feet), Iglesias scored.6–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging6–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 8Vientos hit sacrifice fly to center, Lindor scored.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 8Iglesias singled to right, Marte scored, Lindor to third.3–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 8Lindor singled to center, Alvarez scored, Marte to second.2–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 8Alvarez doubled to left, Taylor scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Laureano homered to center (411 feet).0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Albies homered to left (392 feet), Harris II scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 58%
- ML NYM +130 / ATL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.4 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 10th of 3041–37 | Road vs home | 45–347th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–79 | 76–83 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–49 | 55–71 |
| Underdog | 36–30 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 80–78 | 58–98–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 8–16 ATL in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.