New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jose IglesiasBatting1-3
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Monasterio singled to center, Adames scored and Bauers scored, Ortiz to third.0–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 8Ortiz walked, Contreras scored, Bauers to second, Adames to third.0–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 40–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 8Adames singled to left, Mitchell scored, Contreras to second.0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 4Ortiz singled to center, Adames scored and Hoskins scored, Collins to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 30–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 50%
- ML NYM -110 / MIL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +12 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jared Koenig: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–36 | Road vs home | 46–335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–78 | 84–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 42–49 | 38–52 |
| Underdog | 36–29 | 46–22 |
| Overs–unders | 80–76 | 86–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–10 MIL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.