New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-4
- Colin ReaPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lindor homered to right (376 feet).5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5F. Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to left, Vientos scored.4–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 4Lindor singled to right, F. Alvarez scored, Taylor to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4F. Alvarez singled to left, Martinez scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Nimmo singled to center, Lindor scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 57%
- ML NYM -150 / MIL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 45.1%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -135
- MIL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 3.4 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −12 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +34 Elo | MIL 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.05th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3040–37 | Road vs home | 47–335th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–79 | 85–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–49 | 39–52 |
| Underdog | 36–30 | 46–22 |
| Overs–unders | 80–77 | 86–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–11 MIL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.