San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Elias DiazBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Grichuk homered to right center (392 feet), Thomas scored.2–11
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–11
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 32–11
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 12–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–11
- 7Suárez homered to center (438 feet).2–9
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–9
- 6Gurriel Jr. tripled to right, Carroll scored.2–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 6Cronenworth grounded out to first, Arraez scored.2–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 5McCarthy doubled to third, Grichuk scored.1–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 4Marte homered to left center (443 feet), Moreno scored.1–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 4Perdomo grounded out to second, McCarthy scored, Moreno to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Moreno doubled to left, Suárez scored, McCarthy to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4McCarthy singled to right, Grichuk scored, Suárez to second.1–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 65%
- ML SD +175 / ARI -210
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 47.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -186
- SD +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −17 | SD: Martin Perez: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.41st of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–32 | Road vs home | 43–3715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–76 | 85–76 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 36–47 |
| Underdog | 44–19 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 83–76–1 | 95–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 13–12 ARI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 25.