San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Yu DarvishPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Suárez singled to left, Gurriel Jr. scored.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Arraez tripled to center, Higashioka scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 1Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored.4–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 1Carroll homered to right (412 feet).4–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 1D. Peralta singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Cronenworth to third.4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 34–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Bogaerts grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Machado scored on throwing error by second baseman Marte, Bogaerts to second, Merrill out at second.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 1Merrill singled to center, Profar scored, Machado to second.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Machado singled to right, Arraez scored, Profar to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML SD +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- SD +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +10 | SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +24 Elo | ARI 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3045–32 | Road vs home | 43–3511th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–76 | 85–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 36–45 |
| Underdog | 42–19 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 83–74–1 | 95–63–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 11–12 ARI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 23.