San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Solano homered to left (381 feet), Profar scored.5–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 9Lockridge homered to left (394 feet).3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 9Higashioka homered to left (403 feet), D. Peralta scored.2–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML SD +185 / ARI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -197
- SD +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | −1 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +25 Elo | ARI 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3046–32 | Road vs home | 43–3612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–76 | 85–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 39–57 | 36–46 |
| Underdog | 43–19 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 83–75–1 | 95–64–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–12 ARI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 24.