San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching3.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 5Edman grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Smith scored, Lux out at second.5–7
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–7
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–7
- 4T. Hernández singled to right, Betts scored and Ohtani scored, Freeman to third.5–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 4Edman scored on Morejon wild pitch, Ohtani to second on wild pitch by Morejon, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Morejon.5–4
- 4Edman scored on Morejon wild pitch, Ohtani to second on wild pitch by Morejon, Rojas to third on wild pitch by Morejon.5–4
- 3Bogaerts doubled to left, Merrill scored and Tatis Jr. scored.5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 2Ohtani homered to right (372 feet), Smith scored and Lux scored.3–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 23–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 1Machado homered to left center (398 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Profar grounded out to second, Arraez scored, Tatis Jr. to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML SD +115 / LAD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +7 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +33 Elo | LAD 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3047–33 | Road vs home | 52–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 85–78 | 81–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–58 | 72–67 |
| Underdog | 44–20 | 9–13 |
| Overs–unders | 85–77–1 | 90–70–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 12–14 LAD in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 26.