Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3T. Hernández homered to center (403 feet), Pages scored, Ohtani scored and Betts scored.5–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 2Tatis Jr. homered to left center (396 feet), Cronenworth scored.1–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 2Higashioka hit sacrifice fly to center, D. Peralta scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2D. Peralta doubled to right, Bogaerts scored and Merrill scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Bogaerts grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Machado scored, Merrill to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 1Betts homered to left (342 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 58%
- ML LAD +130 / SD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- SD: Elo 53.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -140
- LAD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.4 – 4.1 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +21 Elo | SD 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 45–359th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–81 | 86–79 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 73–68 | 40–58 |
| Underdog | 9–13 | 45–21 |
| Overs–unders | 92–70–1 | 87–77–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 15–13 SD in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 28.