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Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast

FinalSeries tied 2-2

Away

Dodgers

98-64

8–0

at

Home

Padres

93-69

LAD 45%SD 55%

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Petco Park · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.

SD75%50%75%LADStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Dodgers
  • Mookie BettsBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Alex VesiaPitching1.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Padres
  • David PeraltaBatting2-4
  • Adrian MorejonPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Lux homered to right (369 feet), Smith scored.8–0
  • 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
  • 7Edman sacrificed to pitcher, Muncy scored, Smith to second.6–0
  • 3Smith homered to center (432 feet), Muncy scored.5–0
  • 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
  • 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
  • 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
  • 2Betts singled to right, E. Hernández scored, Ohtani to second.3–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
  • 2Ohtani singled to right, Lux scored, E. Hernández to second.2–0
  • 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 1Betts homered to center (403 feet).1–0
  • 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
  • 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
  • 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
  • 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
  • 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
  • 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Padres 55%

LeanMiss
LAD 45%SD 55%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.

Market
SD 55%
ML LAD +115 / SD -135
Pre-line forecast
SD 55%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SD 51%
Ratings vs. market
−4.2 pts
SD: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
Fair odds
SD -124
LAD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
LAD 3.5 – 4.0 SD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorLADSDWhy
Team rating15591552Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+3−1LAD: Ryan Brasier: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSD +7 EloSD 51.1%
Market-implied ratingsSD 56.0%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastSD 55.3%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSD 55.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres compared, with each team's league rank
LADStatSD
2nd of 305.2Runs scored4.78th of 30
13th of 304.2Runs allowed4.110th of 30
1st of 30+1.0Margin+0.68th of 30
1st of 308–2Last 107–33rd of 30
5th of 3045–35Road vs home45–359th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DodgersPadres
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonLADSD
Run line83–8186–80
Last 105–55–5
Favorite73–6840–59
Underdog10–1345–21
Overs–unders93–70–188–77–1
Overs–unders, last 107–36–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

LAD 15–14 SD in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 29.