New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos singled to left, Turner scored, Harper to second.6–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 16–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–7
- 9Vientos homered to left center (392 feet), Lindor scored.6–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 8Realmuto grounded into fielder's choice to third, Stott scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–6
- 8Stott tripled to right, Harper scored and Castellanos scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Nimmo homered to right center (390 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 34–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Castellanos homered to left center (425 feet).3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Harper homered to center (431 feet), Turner scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 6Alonso homered to right center (370 feet).3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML NYM +125 / PHI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- NYM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +3 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +40 Elo | PHI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 54–261st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–81 | 79–84 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–49 | 58–67 |
| Underdog | 40–32 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 84–80 | 82–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 13–14 PHI in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.
- Oct 5NYM 6 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 60%Miss
- Sep 22PHI 1 @ NYM 2Picked PHI 57%Miss
- Sep 21PHI 3 @ NYM 6Picked NYM 52%Hit
- Sep 20PHI 12 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 50%Miss
- Sep 19PHI 6 @ NYM 10Picked NYM 57%Hit
- Sep 15NYM 1 @ PHI 2Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Sep 14NYM 4 @ PHI 6Picked PHI 53%Hit
- Sep 13NYM 11 @ PHI 3Picked PHI 58%Miss