Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bohm grounded out to shortstop, Castellanos scored.3–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 8Gallo homered to right (336 feet), Ruiz scored and Crews scored.2–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 8Ruiz singled to center, Wood scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Turner homered to left center (390 feet), Sosa scored.2–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6Wood homered to left center (385 feet), L. García Jr. scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 64%
- ML PHI -205 / WSH +170
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -181
- WSH +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +1 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.89 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +81 Elo | PHI 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 65.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 14th of 3039–39 | Road vs home | 37–4226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–82 | 86–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 57–65 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 73–54 |
| Overs–unders | 79–80–1 | 76–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–9 WSH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.