Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Austin HaysBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching2.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Nationals- Stone GarrettBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ruiz singled to left, Yepez scored.1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 8Hays homered to center (396 feet).1–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 7Vargas grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Garrett scored, L. García Jr. out at second.0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 4Garrett singled to center, Yepez scored.0–7
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball In Play0–7
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 30–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–7
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–7
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–7
- 2Ruiz singled to center, Crews scored and Wood scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 1Young reached on infield single to third, L. García Jr. scored, Vargas to third.0–4
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 20–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 10–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul0–4
- 1Garrett homered to left center (431 feet), Yepez scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Yepez singled to center, Crews scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 62%
- ML PHI -185 / WSH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 57.4%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.8 – 3.7 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +52 Elo | PHI 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 13th of 3039–38 | Road vs home | 36–4227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–81 | 85–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 57–64 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 72–54 |
| Overs–unders | 78–80–1 | 75–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–8 WSH in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 23.