Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Yepez singled to left, Nuñez scored, L. García Jr. to second.6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5L. García Jr. singled to right, Young scored, Nuñez to third.6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Wilson doubled to center, Schwarber scored and Stubbs scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 36–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Schwarber singled to left, Clemens scored and Sosa scored, Schwarber to second, Stubbs to third.4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1L. García Jr. homered to center (409 feet).2–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Bohm grounded out to pitcher, Turner scored, Castellanos to third.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Stott grounded out to first, Schwarber scored, Castellanos to second, Turner to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -145 / WSH +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- WSH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1463 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 14th of 3039–40 | Road vs home | 38–4224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 87–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 57–66 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 74–54 |
| Overs–unders | 80–80–1 | 77–83–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–10 WSH in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 25.