New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting3-5
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Martinez singled to right, Nimmo scored and Vientos scored, Alonso to second.8–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 28–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 18–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging8–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging8–4
- 5Vientos singled to right, Iglesias scored and Lindor scored, Nimmo to third.6–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Iglesias reached on infield single to first, Taylor scored, Lindor to second.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Contreras grounded out to shortstop, Turang scored, Chourio to third.3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 4Chourio singled to center, Frelick scored, Chourio to second, Turang to second, Turang safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Taylor.3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 2Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Winker scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 2Winker tripled to right, Vientos scored and Alonso scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 1Hoskins hit by pitch, Chourio scored, Adames to second, Contreras to third.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Contreras singled to right, Turang scored, Chourio to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML NYM +120 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- NYM +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.5 – 4.0 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +12 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.68 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +61 Elo | MIL 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 47–345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 80–80 | 85–75 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–49 | 39–52 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 81–79 | 86–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–11 MIL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.