New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clemens doubled to right, Realmuto scored.6–2
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 36–2
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 9Nimmo singled to right, Bader scored.6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8Marte hit sacrifice fly to center, Iglesias scored.5–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 8Martinez singled to center, Nimmo scored, Iglesias to third.4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 8Alonso hit sacrifice fly to center, Vientos scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 8Nimmo singled to left, Lindor scored, Vientos to third.2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 8Vientos singled to left, Bader scored, Vientos to second, Lindor to third.1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (425 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML NYM +140 / PHI -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- NYM +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.3 – 4.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +12 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +30 Elo | PHI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 54–261st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–81 | 79–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–49 | 58–66 |
| Underdog | 39–32 | 21–17 |
| Overs–unders | 83–80 | 81–80–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 12–14 PHI in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 26.