New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tobias MyersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte singled to right, Winker scored, Marte to second.4–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 9Alonso homered to right center (367 feet), Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 7Frelick homered to right (408 feet).0–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 7Bauers homered to right (405 feet).0–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML NYM +105 / MIL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −1 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Tobias Myers: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +28 Elo | MIL 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 47–345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–81 | 86–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 43–49 | 40–53 |
| Underdog | 38–32 | 46–23 |
| Overs–unders | 83–79 | 88–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–12 MIL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.
- Oct 2NYM 3 @ MIL 5PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Hit
- Oct 1NYM 8 @ MIL 4PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Miss
- Sep 29NYM 5 @ MIL 0Picked NYM 57%Hit
- Sep 28NYM 0 @ MIL 6Picked MIL 50%Hit
- Sep 27NYM 4 @ MIL 8Picked NYM 51%Miss
- Mar 31MIL 4 @ NYM 1Picked NYM 56%Miss
- Mar 30MIL 7 @ NYM 6Picked NYM 53%Miss
- Mar 29MIL 3 @ NYM 1Picked NYM 51%Miss