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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast

FinalNYM win series 3-1

Away

Phillies

95-67

1–4

at

Home

Mets

89-73

PHI 48%NYM 52%

You didn't pick this one.

Citi Field · FS1

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.

NYM75%50%75%PHIStart1234567Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Phillies
  • Nick CastellanosBatting2-4
  • Ranger SuarezPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mets
  • Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
  • Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 6Lindor homered to center (398 feet), Marte scored, Taylor scored and Alvarez scored.1–4
  • 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
  • 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
  • 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
  • 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
  • 4Bohm grounded into fielder's choice to third, Harper scored on fielding error by third baseman Vientos, Castellanos safe at third on error.1–0
  • 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
  • 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
  • 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
  • 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
  • 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
  • 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Mets 52%

Toss-upHit
PHI 48%NYM 52%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
NYM 52%
ML PHI +100 / NYM -120
Pre-line forecast
NYM 50%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
NYM 55%
Ratings vs. market
+2.7 pts
NYM: Elo 54.8%, market 52.2%
Fair odds
NYM -109
PHI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
PHI 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorPHINYMWhy
Team rating15371535Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−13+5PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsNYM +34 EloNYM 54.8%
Market-implied ratingsPHI 51.1%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastPHI 50.2%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastNYM 52.2%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets compared, with each team's league rank
PHIStatNYM
5th of 304.8Runs scored4.77th of 30
12th of 304.1Runs allowed4.315th of 30
4th of 30+0.7Margin+0.412th of 30
22nd of 304–6Last 105–513th of 30
14th of 3040–40Road vs home46–346th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PhilliesMets
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonPHINYM
Run line79–8685–81
Last 103–77–3
Favorite58–6844–49
Underdog21–1841–32
Overs–unders84–80–186–80
Overs–unders, last 109–16–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

PHI 15–14 NYM in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 29.