Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lindor doubled to right, Martinez scored, Taylor to third.2–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 8Castellanos singled to left, Schwarber scored, Harper to second.2–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–6
- 8Harper singled to right, Sosa scored, Schwarber to third.1–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 7Iglesias singled to center, Bader scored and Nimmo scored, Alonso out at home on runner's fielder's choice.0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 6Marte singled to center, Alonso scored and Nimmo scored, Iglesias to second.0–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 4Winker homered to right (399 feet).0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Alonso homered to right (385 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -115 / NYM -105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 46.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.3 – 3.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +23 Elo | NYM 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 46–346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–85 | 84–81 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 58–68 | 43–49 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 41–32 |
| Overs–unders | 83–80–1 | 85–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–13 NYM in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.
- Oct 6NYM 6 @ PHI 7PlayoffsPicked PHI 57%Hit
- Oct 5NYM 6 @ PHI 2PlayoffsPicked PHI 60%Miss
- Sep 22PHI 1 @ NYM 2Picked PHI 57%Miss
- Sep 21PHI 3 @ NYM 6Picked NYM 52%Hit
- Sep 20PHI 12 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 50%Miss
- Sep 19PHI 6 @ NYM 10Picked NYM 57%Hit
- Sep 15NYM 1 @ PHI 2Picked PHI 54%Hit
- Sep 14NYM 4 @ PHI 6Picked PHI 53%Hit