Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Andy PagesBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Brent HoneywellPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Marte singled to center, Alonso scored, Acuña to third.6–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–12
- 6McNeil hit sacrifice fly to center, Winker scored, Marte to third.6–11
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–11
- 6Betts homered to left (382 feet).6–10
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–10
- 5Pages homered to left center (376 feet), E. Hernández scored and Muncy scored.5–10
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–10
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–10
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 4McNeil hit sacrifice fly to center, Winker scored.2–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 4Winker tripled to right, Alonso scored.2–9
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 4Pages homered to left center (418 feet).2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 3Nimmo singled to right, Lindor scored.1–8
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–8
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–8
- 3Lindor tripled to right, Alvarez scored.1–7
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–7
- 3Alvarez singled to left, Marte scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Marte doubled to left, Winker scored and Alonso scored.1–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 52%
- ML LAD -120 / NYM +100
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 3.8 – 3.7 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | 0 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +20 Elo | LAD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 46–346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–82 | 87–84 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 76–69 | 45–50 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 42–34 |
| Overs–unders | 98–71–1 | 90–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 10–6 NYM in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.
- Oct 17LAD 10 @ NYM 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 16LAD 8 @ NYM 0PlayoffsPicked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 14NYM 7 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Oct 13NYM 0 @ LAD 9PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- May 29LAD 10 @ NYM 3Picked LAD 52%Hit
- May 28LAD 3 @ NYM 0Picked LAD 53%Hit
- May 28LAD 5 @ NYM 2Picked LAD 64%Hit
- Apr 21NYM 0 @ LAD 10Picked LAD 69%Hit