New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Soto homered to center (402 feet), Domínguez scored and Verdugo scored.5–2
- 10Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 6Stanton homered to left center (446 feet), Torres scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Kwan singled to center, Giménez scored.0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Bo Naylor doubled to right, J. Naylor scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 10 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +5 Elo | NYY 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3050–30 | Road vs home | 50–303rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 87–79 | 86–83 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 58–73 | 46–53 |
| Underdog | 29–6 | 40–30 |
| Overs–unders | 92–73–1 | 80–87–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 11–5 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.
- Oct 18NYY 8 @ CLE 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 52%Hit
- Oct 17NYY 5 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 50%Hit
- Oct 15CLE 3 @ NYY 6PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Oct 14CLE 2 @ NYY 5PlayoffsPicked NYY 61%Hit
- Aug 22CLE 0 @ NYY 6Picked NYY 60%Hit
- Aug 21CLE 1 @ NYY 8Picked NYY 65%Hit
- Aug 20CLE 9 @ NYY 5Picked NYY 57%Miss
- Apr 14NYY 7 @ CLE 8Picked NYY 54%Miss