New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching2.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Blake TreinenPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil singled to right, Taylor scored.5–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–10
- 8E. Hernández singled to right, Edman scored, Muncy to third.4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8T. Hernández hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Betts doubled to left, Taylor scored, Ohtani to third.4–8
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–8
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 34–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 7Alvarez hit sacrifice fly to right, Taylor scored.4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Ohtani singled to center, Smith scored, Taylor to second.3–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 13–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 4Vientos homered to center (401 feet), Alvarez scored.3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 3Smith homered to center (416 feet), Muncy scored.1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Edman homered to left center (406 feet), T. Hernández scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 1Edman doubled to left, Ohtani scored and T. Hernández scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 11–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML NYM +130 / LAD -155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 52.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- NYM +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −26 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Michael Kopech: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +19 Elo | LAD 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 10th of 3042–38 | Road vs home | 52–282nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 88–84 | 88–83 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 45–50 | 76–70 |
| Underdog | 43–34 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 91–81 | 99–71–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–10 LAD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.
- Oct 18LAD 6 @ NYM 12PlayoffsPicked LAD 52%Miss
- Oct 17LAD 10 @ NYM 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 55%Hit
- Oct 16LAD 8 @ NYM 0PlayoffsPicked LAD 51%Hit
- Oct 14NYM 7 @ LAD 3PlayoffsPicked LAD 58%Miss
- Oct 13NYM 0 @ LAD 9PlayoffsPicked LAD 60%Hit
- May 29LAD 10 @ NYM 3Picked LAD 52%Hit
- May 28LAD 3 @ NYM 0Picked LAD 53%Hit
- May 28LAD 5 @ NYM 2Picked LAD 64%Hit