Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-5, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-5
- Caleb KilianPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stephenson singled to center, De La Cruz scored.3–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 10De La Cruz tripled to right, Dunn scored and India scored.2–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / CHC -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 45.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 3.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −10 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Caleb Kilian: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +30 Elo | CHC 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.111th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3037–43 | Road vs home | 44–3611th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 89–72 | 78–82 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 32–40 | 27–53 |
| Underdog | 57–32 | 51–29 |
| Overs–unders | 75–85–1 | 77–82–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 14–11 CHC in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.