Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Judge singled to left, Soto scored.4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–11
- 8Torres homered to right center (366 feet), Wells scored and Verdugo scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–10
- 8Verdugo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Volpe scored, Wells third.4–7
- 8Pitch 11 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 10 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 24–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 14–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 6Wells homered to right (384 feet).4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 5Freeman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Edman scored, Betts out at second.4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Smith homered to right center (364 feet).3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 3Volpe homered to left center (390 feet), Judge scored, Chisholm Jr. scored and Stanton scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Verdugo grounded out to first, Volpe scored, Wells to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Freeman homered to right (343 feet), Betts scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML LAD +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 45.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- LAD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −16 | LAD: Ben Casparius (no track record yet) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +35 Elo | LAD 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–83 | 88–82 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 79–70 | 59–74 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 101–73–1 | 93–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–3 NYY in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 26NYY 2 @ LAD 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit
- Oct 25NYY 3 @ LAD 6PlayoffsPicked LAD 53%Hit
- Jun 9LAD 4 @ NYY 6Picked LAD 55%Miss
- Jun 8LAD 11 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Jun 7LAD 2 @ NYY 1Picked LAD 59%Hit
- Jun 4NYY 4 @ LAD 1Picked LAD 53%Miss
- Jun 3NYY 6 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 53%Miss