Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Blake TreinenPitching2.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts hit sacrifice fly to center, Edman scored, Smith to third.7–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 8Lux hit sacrifice fly to center, E. Hernández scored, Edman to third.6–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 36–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 26–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–6
- 6Stanton hit sacrifice fly to center, Soto scored, Chisholm Jr. to second.5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5T. Hernández doubled to center, Betts scored and Freeman scored.5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 5Freeman singled to center, Edman scored and Smith scored, Betts to third.3–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Betts reached on infield single to first, E. Hernández scored, Smith to second, Edman to third.1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Stanton homered to right (385 feet).0–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Verdugo singled to right, Volpe scored.0–4
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (397 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Judge homered to right center (403 feet), Soto scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML LAD +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 49.2%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- LAD +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +2 | LAD: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +5 Elo | LAD 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3045–35 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 92–84 | 89–82 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 79–70 | 60–74 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 29–8 |
| Overs–unders | 102–73–1 | 94–76–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 6–4 NYY in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.
- Oct 29LAD 4 @ NYY 11PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Hit
- Oct 28LAD 4 @ NYY 2PlayoffsPicked NYY 57%Miss
- Oct 26NYY 2 @ LAD 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 54%Hit
- Oct 25NYY 3 @ LAD 6PlayoffsPicked LAD 53%Hit
- Jun 9LAD 4 @ NYY 6Picked LAD 55%Miss
- Jun 8LAD 11 @ NYY 3Picked NYY 52%Miss
- Jun 7LAD 2 @ NYY 1Picked LAD 59%Hit
- Jun 4NYY 4 @ LAD 1Picked LAD 53%Miss