Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting3-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Workman doubled to right, Amaya scored and Busch scored.16–0
- 9Busch doubled to right, Berti scored, Amaya to third.14–0
- 9Kelly homered to left center (391 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored.13–0
- 8Amaya homered to right center (386 feet), Tucker scored.11–0
- 8Tucker singled to center, Kelly scored and Happ scored.9–0
- 7Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Busch scored, Workman to third.7–0
- 7Swanson singled to left, Amaya scored, Busch to second.6–0
- 7Busch singled to center, Tucker scored, Amaya to second.5–0
- 7Amaya singled to center, Happ scored, Tucker to second.4–0
- 7Kelly homered to left center (384 feet).3–0
- 6Turner singled to center, Busch scored.2–0
- 2Busch homered to left center (378 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML CHC +155 / LAD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- CHC +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +6 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +77 Elo | LAD 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.6 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 305–3 | Road vs home | 7–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15145th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–7 | 8–7 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–2 | 7–7 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 12–4 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 7–9 LAD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.