San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GillaspiePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Tatis Jr. scored on error by first baseman Turner, Arraez safe at second on error.8–7
- 8Sheets singled to right, Merrill scored.7–7
- 5Arraez singled to right, Díaz scored, Tatis Jr. to third.6–7
- 4Merrill homered to center (404 feet), Machado scored.5–7
- 2Tucker homered to right (407 feet), Happ scored.3–7
- 1Crow-Armstrong scored on a balk, Shaw to third on a balk.3–5
- 1Crow-Armstrong scored on a balk, Shaw to third on a balk.3–5
- 1Hoerner scored on a balk, Shaw to second on a balk, Crow-Armstrong to third on a balk.3–5
- 1Hoerner scored on a balk, Shaw to second on a balk, Crow-Armstrong to third on a balk.3–5
- 1Hoerner doubled to shortstop, Tucker scored, Swanson to third.3–3
- 1Turner hit sacrifice fly to right, Suzuki scored.3–2
- 1Tucker singled to right, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.3–1
- 1Heyward walked, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second, Cronenworth to third.3–0
- 1Bogaerts reached on infield single to pitcher, Arraez scored, Cronenworth to second, Machado to third.2–0
- 1Cronenworth hit by pitch, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Arraez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML SD +115 / CHC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- SD +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −10 | SD: Kyle Hart: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +10 Elo | SD 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 6.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 302.3 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +2.03rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 29 |
| 5th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 15183rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301544 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–3 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–8 CHC in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.