Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-3
- Logan AllenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. grounded out to pitcher, Cronenworth scored, Heyward to third.0–7
- 7Merrill struck out swinging, Machado scored on throwing error by catcher Naylor, Bogaerts stole second.0–6
- 7Bogaerts grounded into fielder's choice to second, Tatis Jr. scored, Machado third.0–5
- 6Cronenworth singled to center, Merrill scored, Gurriel to third.0–4
- 5Arraez singled to left, Lockridge scored.0–3
- 5Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Iglesias scored, Lockridge to third.0–2
- 4Merrill homered to center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML CLE +140 / SD -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- SD: Elo 61.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- CLE +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | +7 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +80 Elo | SD 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.89th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 1.81st of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +3.03rd of 30 |
| 6th of 192–2 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 19 |
| 14th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15216th of 30 |
| 13th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15442nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CLE |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–84 | 86–82 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 46–53 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 40–31 | 45–22 |
| Overs–unders | 80–88–2 | 89–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–5 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.