Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting3-3, 4 RBI
- Kyle HartPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Heyward doubled to center, Sheets scored.2–7
- 5Sheets doubled to left, Bogaerts scored and Cronenworth scored.2–6
- 3Hedges homered to left (363 feet).2–4
- 2Tatis Jr. singled to left, Sheets scored.1–4
- 2Heyward hit sacrifice fly to right, Bogaerts scored, Sheets to third.1–3
- 2Sheets doubled to right, Merrill scored and Cronenworth scored, Bogaerts to third.1–2
- 1Ramírez homered to left (365 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML CLE +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SD: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | CLE: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Kyle Hart (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD +42 Elo | SD 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 1.82nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.55th of 30 |
| 4th of 182–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 18 |
| 16th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15255th of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 15422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CLE |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–84 | 86–82 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 46–53 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 40–31 | 45–22 |
| Overs–unders | 80–88–2 | 89–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–4 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.