Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cronenworth homered to right (381 feet).3–4
- 5Kelenic homered to right (342 feet).3–3
- 3Bogaerts doubled to center, Merrill scored, Cronenworth to third.2–3
- 3Ozuna singled to right, Profar scored and Riley scored, Olson to second.2–2
- 2Maldonado singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Heyward to third.0–2
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to left center (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML ATL +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- SD: Elo 50.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −7 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +2 Elo | SD 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 45–359th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 4th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15382nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–85 | 86–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 56–72 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 45–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–100–3 | 89–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–11 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.