Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-3, 4 RBI
- Michael KingPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Merrill hit sacrifice fly to right, Machado scored, Bogaerts to third.4–7
- 7Machado doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.4–6
- 7Arraez hit sacrifice fly to right, Heyward scored, Tatis Jr. to third.4–5
- 7Sheets homered to center (405 feet).4–4
- 4Riley homered to left center (401 feet).4–3
- 3Merrill grounded out to first, Machado scored, Bogaerts to second.3–3
- 3Albies homered to right (413 feet), Ozuna scored.3–2
- 1Merrill singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored and Machado scored.1–2
- 1Albies grounded into fielder's choice to second, Profar scored, Ozuna out at second, Olson to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / SD +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 48.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- SD +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.3 – 3.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +5 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.96 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 45–359th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301532 | Elo rating | 15362nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–85 | 86–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 56–72 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 45–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–100–3 | 89–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–10 SD in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.