Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-3
- AJ Smith-ShawverPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-3, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Lockridge scored, Tatis Jr. out stretching at second.0–5
- 8Lockridge doubled to right, Bogaerts scored.0–4
- 7Merrill doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.0–3
- 3Bogaerts doubled to left, Cronenworth scored.0–2
- 1Machado doubled to right, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML ATL +110 / SD -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SD: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -119
- ATL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +32 Elo | SD 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 4.013th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 2.36th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +1.76th of 30 |
| 12th of 150–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 15 |
| 2nd of 301540 | Opponent Elo | 15287th of 30 |
| 6th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15402nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–85 | 86–82 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 56–72 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 45–22 |
| Overs–unders | 60–100–3 | 89–78–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–13 SD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.