Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Manzardo doubled to right, Kwan scored and Santana scored.7–4
- 10Kwan doubled to center, Rocchio scored.5–4
- 9Massey hit sacrifice fly to right, Fermin scored.4–4
- 6Manzardo homered to center (424 feet), Santana scored.4–3
- 5Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to right, Arias scored, Rocchio to third.2–3
- 4Noel hit sacrifice fly to right, Manzardo scored.1–3
- 3Pasquantino homered to right center (389 feet), Isbel scored and Witt Jr. scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- KC 61%
- ML CLE +145 / KC -175
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- KC: Elo 53.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- KC -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.8 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +12 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +22 Elo | KC 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3042–39 | Road vs home | 45–3610th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149526th of 30 |
| 13th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CLE |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 86–84 | 93–72 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 46–53 | 38–41 |
| Underdog | 40–31 | 55–31 |
| Overs–unders | 80–88–2 | 70–94–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 12–14 KC in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.