Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4
- Ben LivelyPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Manzardo hit sacrifice fly to left, Kwan scored.2–5
- 7Arraez homered to right (357 feet).1–5
- 7Thomas grounded out to shortstop, Santana scored.1–4
- 3Merrill homered to right center (388 feet), Machado scored.0–4
- 3Machado reached on infield single to third, Arraez scored on throwing error by third baseman Ramírez.0–2
- 3Tatis Jr. stole home, Arraez stole second.0–1
- 3Tatis Jr. stole home, Arraez stole second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 61%
- ML CLE +145 / SD -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- SD: Elo 57.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SD -156
- CLE +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.3 – 4.2 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | CLE: Ben Lively: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +49 Elo | SD 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.28th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 1.51st of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +3.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 192–3 | Road vs home | 6–01st of 19 |
| 5th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 15177th of 30 |
| 14th of 301508 | Elo rating | 15472nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | — | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 2–6 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.