Chicago Cubs at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting4-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Jacob WilsonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tucker homered to right center (417 feet).18–3
- 8Kelly tripled to right, Shaw scored.17–3
- 6Kelly walked, Hoerner scored, Shaw to second, Crow-Armstrong to third.16–3
- 6Crow-Armstrong singled to right, Swanson scored, Hoerner to second.15–3
- 6Hoerner reached on infield single to shortstop, Busch scored, Swanson to third.14–3
- 6Swanson doubled to right, Tucker scored and Suzuki scored, Busch to third.13–3
- 6Tucker hit a ground rule double, Kelly scored.11–3
- 5Busch singled to left, Kelly scored and Tucker scored.10–3
- 5Tucker grounded into fielder's choice to first, Shaw scored, Kelly safe at second on throwing error by first baseman Soderstrom, Tucker second, Kelly safe at third on error.8–3
- 5Kelly singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Hoerner scored, Shaw to third.7–3
- 4Wilson grounded out to second, Urshela scored, Muncy to third.5–3
- 4Muncy doubled to center, Andujar scored, Urshela to third.5–2
- 4Kelly homered to left (356 feet).5–1
- 3Wilson homered to left (341 feet).4–1
- 1Swanson homered to center (417 feet).4–0
- 1Busch homered to right center (387 feet), Tucker scored.3–0
- 1Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored, Tucker to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 3.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | −10 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ATH: Joey Estes: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +31 Elo | CHC 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.521st of 30 |
| 27th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 2.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.511th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301539 | Opponent Elo | 15179th of 30 |
| 12th of 301513 | Elo rating | 146027th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 84–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–54 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 73–60 |
| Overs–unders | 77–83–1 | 79–81 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–2 ATH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.
