Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Thomas reached on infield single to second, Gurriel Jr. scored, Suárez to third.1–8
- 7Naylor singled to center, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.1–7
- 5Smith hit a ground rule double, Gurriel Jr. scored.1–6
- 4Perdomo singled to center, Thomas scored.1–5
- 4Suárez homered to left center (418 feet), Smith scored.1–4
- 2Suárez homered to left center (436 feet), Smith scored.1–2
- 2Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Swanson scored, Hoerner to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML CHC +125 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- CHC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +32 Elo | ARI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 86–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–54 | 37–47 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–83–1 | 96–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–9 ARI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.