Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel Jr. grounded out to shortstop, Marte scored.10–6
- 9Amaya doubled to left, Shaw scored and Hoerner scored.10–5
- 6Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Suárez scored.8–5
- 6McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to right, Moreno scored, Suárez to third.8–4
- 6Hoerner singled to right, Suzuki scored.8–3
- 5Amaya doubled to left, Busch scored, Shaw scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.7–3
- 4Perdomo reached on infield single to third, Moreno scored, Grichuk to third.4–3
- 4Happ homered to right (366 feet).4–2
- 2Suárez homered to left center (430 feet).3–2
- 2Tucker singled to center, Happ scored.3–1
- 2Happ doubled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored and Shaw scored.2–1
- 1Naylor singled to left, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML CHC +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 55.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +35 Elo | ARI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 86–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–54 | 37–47 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–83–1 | 96–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–9 ARI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 13.