Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler NevinBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernaiz doubled to left, Brown scored and Gelof scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 7Nevin doubled to left, Brown scored and Soderstrom scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 5Raleigh homered to right (412 feet), Rodríguez scored.0–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 5Rodríguez singled to right, Robles scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Robles doubled to left, Crawford scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Turner hit a ground rule double, Arozarena scored and Raleigh scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML OAK +155 / SEA -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -166
- OAK +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OAK 2.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OAK | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1442 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +106 Elo | SEA 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 67.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 67.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| OAK | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.72nd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3031–49 | Road vs home | 48–324th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season | OAK |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–75 | 67–91 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 41–69 |
| Underdog | 73–59 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 78–81 | 77–79–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OAK 5–20 SEA in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 25.