Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5
- Brady BassoPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 3García homered to left (387 feet), Heim scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Hernaiz singled to center, Cameron scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 1Lowe singled to center, Heim scored, García to second.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Langford homered to left (361 feet), Semien scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 52%
- ML TEX +100 / OAK -120
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- OAK: Elo 50.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.7 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +22 | TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Brady Basso: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK 0 Elo | OAK 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 26th of 3030–46 | Road vs home | 37–4226th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–91 | 82–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–60 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 36–31 | 72–58 |
| Overs–unders | 77–79–1 | 76–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 15–9 OAK in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 24.