Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jonah HeimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wilson singled to center, Gelof scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Heim homered to center (405 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 6Gelof hit sacrifice fly to center, Langeliers scored, Soderstrom to third.3–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–4
- 5Heim hit by pitch, Langford scored, Lowe to second, García to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Lowe homered to center (441 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Bleday grounded out to first, Butler scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Soderstrom doubled to center, Langeliers scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Langeliers doubled to left, Butler scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1García doubled to right, Smith scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 51%
- ML TEX -115 / OAK -105
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -104
- OAK +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +21 Elo | TEX 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3030–45 | Road vs home | 36–4227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–91 | 82–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 30–60 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 35–31 | 72–58 |
| Overs–unders | 76–79–1 | 75–79 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 15–8 OAK in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.