Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lowe grounded into fielder's choice to second, Langford scored, García out at second.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 6García singled to right, Smith scored, Langford to third.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Bleday singled to left, Wilson scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to left, Butler scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Bleday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Wilson scored, Rooker out at second, Butler to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 73%
- ML TEX -350 / OAK +250
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 55.5%, market 73.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -272
- OAK +272 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 1.1 – -1.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 0
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −12 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · OAK: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +38 Elo | TEX 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 73.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.724th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 25th of 3031–46 | Road vs home | 37–4326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–91 | 82–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–60 | 10–16 |
| Underdog | 37–31 | 72–58 |
| Overs–unders | 77–80–1 | 76–80 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 16–9 OAK in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 25.