Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Rodríguez homered to left (438 feet), Robles scored.1–2
- 4Soderstrom homered to left center (366 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 62%
- ML ATH +150 / SEA -180
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -161
- ATH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.3 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −1 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +82 Elo | SEA 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 2.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.3 | Margin | −2.327th of 30 |
| 1st of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–210th of 15 |
| 11th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 146027th of 30 |
| 27th of 301460 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–76 | 68–91 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 42–69 |
| Underdog | 73–60 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 79–81 | 78–79–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 7–22 SEA in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 29.