Athletics at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Polanco homered to center (413 feet), Raley scored.2–4
- 8Arozarena homered to left (424 feet).2–2
- 8Soderstrom homered to right (362 feet).2–1
- 7Robles hit sacrifice fly to center, Crawford scored.1–1
- 5Soderstrom homered to center (432 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML ATH +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 63.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- ATH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +92 Elo | SEA 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 62.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 3031–50 | Road vs home | 49–324th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 152310th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  ATH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–76 | 68–91 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 42–69 |
| Underdog | 73–60 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 79–81 | 78–79–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 5–21 SEA in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 26.
