Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez homered to left center (407 feet), Naylor scored.4–3
- 7Shaw homered to left center (379 feet).4–1
- 5Tucker homered to right (405 feet), Berti scored.3–1
- 4Amaya doubled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–1
- 2McCarthy grounded out to first, Grichuk scored, Moreno to second, Suárez to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML CHC +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −12 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2024) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 3039–42 | Road vs home | 44–3711th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15036th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 86–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–54 | 37–47 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–83–1 | 96–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–10 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 15.