Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll doubled to center, Thomas scored.6–10
- 8Thomas singled to right, Nelson scored.6–9
- 8Nelson singled to center, Naylor scored, Nelson to second, Suárez thrown out at home.6–8
- 8Naylor doubled to center, Moreno scored.6–7
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (416 feet), Perdomo scored.6–6
- 8Perdomo doubled to center, Carroll scored and Thomas scored.6–4
- 8Tucker homered to right (366 feet), Amaya scored and Suzuki scored.6–2
- 7Moreno singled to left, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.3–2
- 6Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Naylor scored, Smith to third.3–1
- 6Suzuki homered to center (420 feet), Happ scored.3–0
- 2Swanson homered to center (418 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML CHC -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | 0 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +26 Elo | ARI 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 5.023rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.711th of 30 |
| 1st of 152–1 | Road vs home | 1–210th of 15 |
| 2nd of 301540 | Opponent Elo | 151512th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–83 | 86–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–54 | 37–47 |
| Underdog | 51–29 | 49–29 |
| Overs–unders | 77–83–1 | 96–65–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–10 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.