San Diego Padres at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to right, Lockridge scored, Díaz to second.1–7
- 6Kelly homered to left center (365 feet), Hoerner scored and Shaw scored.0–7
- 4Hoerner singled to right, Busch scored, Swanson to second.0–4
- 3Swanson homered to center (420 feet).0–3
- 2Tucker walked, Crow-Armstrong scored, Happ to second, Kelly to third.0–2
- 2Kelly singled to left, Swanson scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML SD -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- SD +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.2 – 3.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +14 Elo | SD 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 6.34th of 30 |
| 1st of 301.8 | Runs allowed | 4.717th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+2.9 | Margin | +1.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
| 5th of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 15167th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301547 | Elo rating | 15239th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 6–2 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 7–7 CHC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.