Chicago Cubs at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Suzuki singled to left, Shaw scored, Kelly to second.10–2
- 7Shaw singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.9–2
- 4Crow-Armstrong doubled to left, Hoerner scored.8–2
- 4Hoerner singled to right, Tucker scored, Hoerner to second.7–2
- 4Suzuki homered to right (344 feet).6–2
- 3Rooker homered to left (385 feet), Butler scored.5–2
- 3Shaw singled to left, Turner scored, Swanson to second.5–0
- 2Suzuki homered to left center (401 feet), Shaw scored and Happ scored.4–0
- 2Kelly hit sacrifice fly to right, Hoerner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 52%
- ML CHC +100 / ATH -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ATH: Elo 49.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +38 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.520th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 5.526th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 194–2 | Road vs home | 0–219th of 19 |
| 5th of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 151610th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 145427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | — |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–2 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
