Chicago Cubs at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Turner singled to center, Tucker scored.7–4
- 4Happ hit sacrifice fly to center, Crow-Armstrong scored, Amaya to second, Shaw to third.6–4
- 3Langeliers homered to left (396 feet), Rooker scored.5–4
- 3Swanson doubled to center, Busch scored.5–2
- 3Tucker homered to right center (427 feet).4–2
- 1Rooker homered to left (340 feet), Butler scored.3–2
- 1Suzuki homered to center (445 feet), Happ scored and Tucker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / ATH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.9 – 3.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −7 | CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +48 Elo | CHC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.1 | Runs scored | 3.421st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 5.223rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 193–2 | Road vs home | 0–119th of 19 |
| 3rd of 301529 | Opponent Elo | 151512th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 145627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | — |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–2 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.
